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Before the Bell

March 31, 2010 at 8:26 am No comments

S&P futures vs fair value: -4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. Disappointment over the March ADP Employment Report has pressured stock futures this morning, such that a lower start to the session looks to be in order. The report precedes the government’s official nonfarm payrolls report, which is due Friday, so market participants have started to question the soundness of the consensus call for an increase of 185,000 payrolls in the tally from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the ADP report does not incorporate the sort of weather-related rebound that could be seen in the BLS data.

There is still some more data yet to come this morning; the Chicago PMI for March is due at 9:45 AM ET and factory orders figures for February are due at 10:00 AM ET.

Though there were a few corporate news items, including increased guidance from Honeywell (HON), this morning’s dose of data is likely to drive early action in the stock market. That said, though, increases in participation should also take into consideration that this is the final session of the quarter, so some portfolio juggling could come into play.

Also, the Fed ends its planned $1.25 trillion purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities today.

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ADP Job Numbers Highlight True Economy

March 31, 2010 at 8:24 am No comments

U.S. private employers shed 23,000 jobs in March, missing expectations for an increase in jobs although fewer than the adjusted 24,000 jobs lost in February, a report by a private employment service said on Wednesday.

The February fall was originally reported at 20,000.

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Oil stays above $82 on gains by euro, equities

March 30, 2010 at 8:37 am No comments

Oil prices stayed above $82 a barrel Tuesday, clinging to gains from the previous day fueled by a U.S. dollar drop and surging equity markets.
By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for May delivery was up 17 cents to $82.34 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the session, it peaked at $82.74. On Tuesday, the contract jumped $2.17 to settle at $82.17. Crude prices have been buoyed by a yearlong rally of global stock markets. Oil traders often look to equity markets as a measure of overall investor sentiment. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.4 percent Monday to its highest level since September 2008, and most Asian and European indexes rose slightly Tuesday. “The oil complex has grabbed on to the stock indexes as a proxy for future oil demand,” Ritterbusch and Associates said in a report. “As long as a low interest rate policy is nurtured by the Fed, oil values appear poised to go up easier than they go down.” Others reminded that despite Monday’s surge, oil prices were still within the recent $77-$84 trading levels. “Currently range-bound oil prices are a result of optimism about a global economic recovery clashing with still weak oil market fundamentals,” said a report from JBC Energy in Vienna. Higher oil prices were also seen reflecting efforts by fund managers to achieve positive figures to close out the first quarter of the year. “We have very likely underestimated the potential for end-of-the-quarter window dressing,” said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Switzerland. Oil prices continued to move in the opposite direction to the dollar’s exchange rate, rising as the greenback weakened. A falling dollar makes oil cheaper to investors holding other currencies. The euro was up to $1.3486 on Tuesday from $1.3463 on Wednesday, earlier reaching a high of $1.3536. The British pound advanced to $1.5092 from $1.4975. In other Nymex trading in April contracts, heating oil rose 0.22 cents to $2.1210 a gallon, and gasoline was steady at $2.2613 a gallon. Natural gas fell 1 cent to $3.906 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, Brent crude was up 8 cents at $81.25 on the ICE futures exchange.

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Stocks Rise on Consumer Confidence

March 29, 2010 at 9:57 am No comments

Stocks rose Monday after investors grow more comfortable about a global economic recovery.

The Commerce Department said consumer spending rose for the fifth consecutive month in February, matching economists’ expectations. Jobs and the strength of the consumer are considered keys to a strong, sustained economic recovery.

At the end of the week, investors will get the Labor Department’s monthly employment report, which is expected to show employers added jobs this month.

Bank stocks rose Monday after the Treasury Department said it would start to sell the shares it owns in Citigroup Inc. The government took 7.7 billion Citigroup shares in exchange for $25 billion it gave the bank during the 2008 credit crisis. The planned sale during the next year could result in a profit of more than $8 billion.

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Morning Update

March 26, 2010 at 10:39 am No comments

Stocks rose Friday after European leaders agreed to a bailout program for debt-burdened Greece. A report showing a small improvement in consumer sentiment also helped stocks. The better-than-expected report further solidified expectations that consumers are growing more comfortable about the economy. At the same time, traders brushed off a slightly worse-than-expected revision to the nation’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product. The report confirmed that the economy still grew rapidly during the last three months of the year because of government stimulus measures and companies replenishing their inventories. In morning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 54.27, or 0.5 percent, to 10,895.48. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 6.43, or 0.6 percent, to 1,172.16, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 10.29, or 0.4 percent, to 2,407.70.

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Housing Shadow Market Creates Further Tension

March 25, 2010 at 1:04 pm No comments

With mortgage rates still near generational lows, national home prices down more than 20% from the peak and the government providing tax incentives for homebuyers, it seems like a great time to buy a house; at least, that’s what your friendly neighborhood realtor says on those late-night TV commercials.

But is it true?

“If you’ve got good credit and can put a down payment down…and you’re planning to stay in the house for an extended period of time [like] seven-to-10 years, then now could be an attractive time to buy,” says Zillow.com chief economist Stan Humphries.

But those people who can afford to wait to buy a house are probably better off, Humphries says. Based on the most recent data, there are 3.6 million existing homes and 236,000 new homes for sale in America; that equates to 8.6 months and 9.2 months of supply, respectively, based on current sales rates.

But that’s only half the story. Humphries notes the official inventory numbers “don’t capture all the foreclosures that are out there,” or the so-called shadow inventory of homes waiting to come on the market.

So how big is the “shadow” hanging over housing? A recent Zillow.com survey shows 8% of homeowners, or about 10 million Americans, are “very likely” to sell if and as local conditions improve.

Humphries doesn’t expect anywhere near 10 million more homes to come on the market in the near term. But this “pent-up supply” combined with foreclosures already in the pipeline and those yet to come because of negative equity and job losses means it will take three-to-five years “before we see more normal appreciation rates return to the market,” the economist predicts.

In other words, time is still on the buyers’ side — yes it is.

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Stocks Gain on Expectations

March 25, 2010 at 12:56 pm No comments

Stocks resumed their climb Thursday after upbeat forecasts from Best Buy and Qualcomm boosted expectations for the economy. The advance came a day after a drop in the market interrupted a string of gains. The Dow Jones industrial average has risen in 10 of the past 12 days. It rose about 110 points in afternoon trading. Broader indexes also moved higher. In early afternoon trading, the Dow rose 109.66, or 1 percent, to 10,945.81. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 12.08, or 1 percent, to 1,179.80, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 30.75, or 1.3 percent, to 2,429.51. Stocks have been climbing with little interruption since early February. The move higher has been largely due to economic reports showing slow but steady improvements in the economy.

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Market Update

March 25, 2010 at 9:43 am No comments

The dollar index continues to recover losses and is moving closer to positive territory, which is causing commodities to push lower.

April natural gas has traded in negative territory for the majority of today’s session so far. About 20 minutes after pit trading began in the energy markets, natural gas began to sell off sharply and hit new morning lows of $3.972 per MMBtu near the top of the hour. Ahead of inventory data, natural gas was trading just above those lows. Following the data, which showed a build of 11 bcf compared to a build of 8 bcf, natural gas pushes to fresh lows of $3.95 per MMBtu, currently at $4.01, down 2.3%.

May crude oil moved into positive territory overnight and has remained there since. Highs of $81.40 per barrel were hit an hour ago. Currently, the energy component is trading at $80.97 per barrel, up 0.4%.

After trading in positive territory for the last seven hours, April gold dipped into the red momentarily and is currently at $1089.40 per ounce, up $0.60. May silver has showed more strength than gold in recent activity. Silver touched highs of $16.86 per ounce, but has since pulled back and is 0.5% higher at $16.73 per ounce. DJ30 +70.06 NASDAQ +19.23 SP500 +7.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1538/521.0 mln/837 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1968/225.6 mln/836

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Best Buy Beats Estimates – Recovery in Retail?

March 25, 2010 at 8:19 am No comments

Retailers continue to post impressive earnings this quarter signaling strength in this sector. Tiffany’s first to post better then expected earnings from the high end retailers and now Best Buy signals a recovery may be in bloom – -

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Stock futures rise, point to higher opening

March 25, 2010 at 7:55 am No comments

Stock futures are rising after a new report shows initial claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected. The Labor Department says first-time jobless claims fell to 442,000 last week. Economists had forecast a decline to 450,000. The rise in futures Thursday comes a day after the market temporarily put a rally on hold. Investors appear to be quickly brushing off new worries about European sovereign debt problems and weakness in the housing market that sent stocks lower Wednesday. Dow Jones industrial average futures are up 32, or 0.3 percent, at 10,819. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures are up 4.70, or 0.4 percent, at 1,169.30, while Nasdaq 100 index futures are up 7.75, or 0.4 percent, at 1,959.25.

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